*By Paul Ejime
After weeks of stand-off, tension would appear to be easing between ECOWAS and the
Niger coup makers over options for the restoration of constitutional order in that country
following the 26 July ouster of elected President Mohamed Bazoum.
The Brig.-Gen. Abdourahamane-led junta had doubled down with reluctance to negotiate,
accusing ECOWAS of bad faith in slamming punitive sanctions on Niger and threatening the
use of force, without hearing the soldiers’ side of the story.
However, retired General Abdulsalami Abubakar, Nigeria’s former Head of State, who met
the junta leaders and deposed President Bazoum at the weekend during his mission as
ECOWAS Special envoy, has expressed optimism that “diplomacy will be successful” in
resolving the impasse.
“I must say that our visit to Niger has been very fruitful and that it has opened an avenue to
start talking…,” Gen. Abubakar told journalists in Abuja on Tuesday after briefing Nigeria’s
President Bola Amed Tinubu, the ECOWAS current Chairman on the outcome of the
mission.
“Hopefully, diplomacy will see the better of this. Nobody wants to go to war, it doesn’t pay
anybody, but then again, our leaders have said if all fails and I don’t think all will fail, we’ll
get… out of this mess.” Gen. Abubakar said, in reference to ECOWAS’ threat to use force as
the last resort to restore constitutional order in Niger.
Gen. Abubakar, whose delegation included the ECOWAS Commission President Omar
Touray and Muslim leader, Sultan of Sokoto, Muhammadu Sa’ad Abubakar, said the coup
leaders had “made their points,” which he has conveyed to the ECOWAS Chairman.
ECOWAS has rejected as “provocative and a smokescreen” the junta leaders’ three-year
political transition programme, announced after the ECOWAS delegation’s visit.
President Tinubu is now expected to consult with his Heads of State colleagues to decide
ECOWAS’ next move.
Meanwhile, the African Union has announced Niger’s suspension from all its activities,
saying it will also assess the impact of ECOWAS measures against the junta.
The possibility for the use military force in Niger threatened by ECOWAS is growing
unpopular by the day largely because of its potentially dangerous fall-out, such as grave
humanitarian consequences in the landlocked poor country where ECOWAS sanctions are
already biting hard on the long-suffering population in a politically volatile region,
A number of trucks laden with food and other essentials only arrived in Niamey on Tuesday
from Burkina Faso, the first supply of goods to Niger following the border closure by
ECOWAS member States in compliance with the regional sanctions.
Nigeria has also cut electricity supplies to Niger, further compounding the hardships on the
country’s 26 million people, who have been denied the benefits of their country’s rich natural
resources, such as priced uranium as a result of decades of leadership failures.
Burkina Faso and Mali, which are also ruled by the military have pledged their support for
the Niamey military junta, against any external attack, amid reports that both countries had
started moving weapons and military planes to Niger.
Guinea Conakry is another ECOWAS member State now under military dictatorship from
2020, as the organization appears determined to make an example of Niger in its resolve to
put an end to the undemocratic drift in the region.
But there are concerns and complications in the Niger situation because of its so-called
strategic interest to Western countries and America, with Russia and China, also waiting to
pounce.
Apart from America and Canada, Western countries, particularly France still have about
3,000 combined troops and military trainers, who were ostensibly supporting Niger armed
forces in counterterrorism before the 26 July military takeover.
Furthermore, America’s new Ambassador arrived in Niamey a few days ago, adding to the
ambivalent positions and confusing signals from competing foreign interests in Niger, and
other former French colonies in Africa, where the West fears that Russia could move in
swiftly to fill any vacuum, were Niger’s Western allies to quit the country.
The U.S. and its Western allies have evacuated most of their civilian nationals from Niger,
even as Washington continues to evaluate the status of the 26 July event, whether it was “a
coup” or “an attempted coup,” given that in principle, America avoids diplomatic dealings
with so-called undemocratic governments.
From the complexity of the Niger situation, ECOWAS has a duty to prioritise the interests of
its 400 million Community citizens and clear all perceptions of being stampeded into a proxy
war.
*Paul Ejime is a Global Affairs Analyst and Consultant on Peace & Security and
Governance Communications
